Undergraduate Projects

This study investigates the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall patterns in the South China Sea (SCS) region. The IOD, characterized by temperature differences in the Indian Ocean, significantly impacts climate in surrounding areas. In contrast, the SCS experiences climate variations influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, monsoon patterns, and local atmospheric conditions. By analyzing IOD patterns over the years, this research aims to understand their impact on rainfall variability and patterns in the SCS region. Although the IOD and SCS climate phenomena operate independently, there are indirect connections through broader climate systems. Changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions associated with the IOD can influence regional weather patterns, including rainfall, monsoon activity, and ocean currents, thereby affecting the SCS climate. The study leverages data from the CHIPRS, Copernicus Climate data stores and other climate reanalyses to correlate IOD events with observed rainfall patterns in the SCS. The findings highlight the indirect but significant influence of the IOD on the SCS climate, contributing to a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of global climate systems and informing more accurate regional climate predictions.  

The South China Sea (SCS) is part of the path cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which phenomena that influence tropical and regional weather patterns. This study analyses the trend of MJO activity and its effect on rainfall in the maritime continent during various phases (positive phase in 1997, neutral phase in 2001-2005, and negative phase in 2022). The MJO index was adopted from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, while the CHIRP rainfall data temporal scale of monthly and daily were analyzed to provide trends of the MJO and precipitation during different phases. The analysis revealed that the strength of the MJO highly influenced by El Nino with positive IOD in 1997, and La Nina with negative IOD in 2022. The strength of MJO is also affected by the monsoon system which is higher in the Northeast monsoon, and lower in the Southwest monsoon over the maritime continent. Besides the influence of ENSO and IOD, the rainfall in the maritime continent is also affected by MJO. When experiencing positive strength of MJO with the negative ENSO and IOD, extreme wet weather occurs and cause flooding. With the negative strength of MJO, with positive ENSO and IOD, extreme hot weather occurs and causes drought. To compare within the phase, the number of ‘Dry’ day in 1997 is highest (>250 days), while number of ‘Rainy’ and ‘Heavy Rain’ day in 2022 is the highest (>250 days and >17 days respectively). Hence, ENSO, IOD, monsoon system are highly related with MJO. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between atmospheric and ocean that influence on rainfall in the maritime continent 

The South China Sea (SCS) is recognised as the largest marginal sea within the western Pacific Basin. The Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) in the South China Sea (SCS) are believed to be influenced by a range of factors, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The analysis of ENSO trends spanning the years 1980 to 2020 is conducted by employing two key indices, namely the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We employed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and sea level anomalies (SLAs), both of which were used Level 4 satellite products and retrieved from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). The study revealed that, in El Niño years, there is a discernible negative trend in the mean sea level anomalies, whereas, in La Niña years, positive anomalies observed within the study area. The analysis of SST data indicates that the thermosteric effect could potentially play a significant role in the fluctuations of sea level observed during the ENSO phenomenon. A decrease in SST during the peak of El Niño over the SCS is associated with a reduction up to 15 cm in SLA. Conversely, an increase in SST during the peak of La Niña is linked up to 20 cm increase in the SLA. The highly affected areas of the Philippines and the northern area of Borneo demonstrate a 12- months average of 12 cm SLA range correspond to ENSO events. SLA is positively associated with the MEImm index in the SCS. This indicates that ENSO events have a crucial role in propelling the region's climatic events sea level fluctuations. This study offers valuable perspectives for enhancing disaster preparedness in the face of severe El Niño or La Niña occurrences. 

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the regions in the Western North Pacific that is prone to the tropical cyclones activity. This study analyses the tropical cyclone trends and the influence of sea surface temperatures on the variations of tropical cyclone in the SCS from 1980 to 2020. The datasets of TC from IBTrACS and SST from Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) website are used alongside the MATLAB processing software to provide the important information regarding the TC activity in the SCS over the 40 years. Other than that, the SST variations are studied to understand the influence it has on the development and intensification of TC. From the results obtained, the average annual TC occurrence in the SCS were 14 events from 1980 to 2020. The highest TC activity was in 2013 and 2017 (19 events), meanwhile the lowest TC activity was in 2002 (7 events). The seasonal monsoon events have an impact on the TC activity across the SCS region. This study revealed the TC occurrences were active in summer season (July to September), with a peak in September, where warmer SST was caused by the southwest monsoon. In contrast, TC occurrences were supressed during winter season and northeast monsoon (January to April) with the lowest number of events was in February due to the cooler SST. This study also discusses the contribution of warm SST on duration of intense TC state as it provides favourable conditions for a TC to maintain its structure for longer times. A severe intense TC state can live up to seven days. In order to precisely assess the potential hazards cause by tropical cyclones in the South China Sea region, this study highlights the significance of understanding the relationship between the variations of tropical cyclones, ocean-atmospheric interactions, and weather patterns.